The only way the current strategy of both sides changes is if a major factor changes, otherwise this cold standoff is the most stable place for both sides on the matter.
It could be that an election in Taiwan is won by a very pro-China party - a similar thing led to rapid changes in Hong Kong. Or an American leader changes tactics dramatically because theres no longer an incentive to support Taiwan.
Taiwan needs to be careful to guard against either situation happening.
Differing from many superpowers that came before the US, the US has a reputation of following through on what it says it will do long term, and the vast geopolitical diplomatic reach of the Americans means that for now, China would experience too high an economic cost to try and change this balance unilaterally.
Differing from many superpowers that came before the US, the US has a reputation of following through on what it says it will do long term
Not sure about that one chief.
Also not sure about saying that Taiwan needs to “be careful to guard against” a party being democratically elected with positions that the USA doesn’t like.
Especially when you consider that Biden and the powerful forces who actually get to decide how “the USA” responds to this are not for humanitarian reasons. “The USA” just wants nuclear launch sites as close as possible to China.
Most of China’a infrastructure is on the coast. We can achieve that with a couple SSBNs lurking thousands of kilometers off the coast.
Bonus points if one surfaces where it can be photographed, but in international water, every so often. Just as a reminder.
Sinophobes once again unable to hide their bloodlust.
Are just following me around? Hey while you’re here, are the people of Xinjiang Chinese or not? I just want to know if I should refer to them as an oppressed population or an occupied country?
No, who are you?
Of course the people of Xinjiang are Chinese. I suppose you could refer to the Uyghur (who aren’t the only people who live in Xinjiang) as an oppressed group, in the same way you could refer to African Americans or European Roma as an oppressed population.
Oh no, oh gosh. I’m sorry to be the one to tell you this but I was told that if I criticized the Chinese government I have to be a Sinophobe.
It’s okay, we have groups. And cookies.
Ok. Well say bye bye to Three Gorges dam & ~35 million Chinese serfs.
For starters.
It’s absolutely insane and genocidal for you to wish for the drowning of millions of civilians.
Should China have this ideological adherence to reclaiming Taiwan, and be ramping up for a deadly and horrible invasion for it? No.
Should the biggest industries on the planet and ultimately all technology users depend on the independence of a tiny island nation that has an unresolved civil war with an authoritarian superpower? Hell no.
But those aren’t the questions we have to answer. We have to answer insane questions like “what will happen if China tries to seize Taiwan?” When the questions are insane, the answers are never good.
The answer still doesn’t have to be “deliberate and gleeful genocide.”
It’s the same gloomy logic as MAD, isn’t it? The hope is that the threat is enough to make war unthinkable. The insane part is that you have to walk that tight rope indefinitely or the whole thing falls apart.
Well it’s a gloomy logic for Taiwan, who have to somberly weigh up the prospect of losing their sovereignty vs committing an act of mass genocide. For the comfortable westerners with no connection to the issue gleefully calling for it, it’s just a matter of genocidal blood lust.
I’m not calling for it at all. I want the issue to be resolved diplomatically. We can talk about that if you prefer, but you’ll have to start us off with some ideas.
I never said you were…
Least genocidal sinophobe
Let’s make West Taiwan happen
Taiwan is the island, the nation is the RoC
You see, there are these concepts called “sarcastic humour” and “memes”
Oh? So explain the joke then.
China claims Taiwan is theirs, the joke is to flip that and say China is Taiwans. Pretty easy stuff
Edit: And before you say your point still stands, people usually dont care about technicalities when it comes to jokes and memes, unless the technicality IS the joke or meme
But the RoC does claim that mainland China is theirs… They don’t call it Taiwan though, because Taiwan is the island.
Ok, but when someone calls China “West Taiwan”, they ARENT refrencing politics, they are meming against China
How so?
